India Abolishes BIS QCOs on 14 Polymers & Textiles: Why an Import Surge from Asia Is Here (And How to Secure Your Freight Capacity)

The November 12 notification removes critical non-tariff barriers for importers. Based on past market shocks, our data forecasts a sharp rise in freight rates and severe capacity shortages on Asia-India lanes. Read our analysis and secure your Q1 2026 capacity before your competitors do.

I. A Market-Shaking Policy Shift: India Scraps 14 Key Quality Control Orders

In a significant move poised to reshape India's import landscape, the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, in consultation with the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), has rescinded 14 key Quality Control Orders (QCOs). The series of notifications, published in the Gazette of India on November 12, 2025, (S.O. 5129(E) through S.O. 5142(E)), removes the mandatory BIS certification requirement for a wide range of chemicals, polymers, and textiles "with immediate effect". 

This action dismantles a significant operational and financial barrier for Indian importers. For these 14 commodities, the mandate to conform to Indian Standards and bear the BIS Standard Mark—which applied to both domestic manufacturers and foreign exporters—is now void.

This policy shift is not an isolated incident. It follows a clear trend of regulatory easing, including the recent withdrawal of QCOs for other industrial chemicals like Acrylonitrile, Maleic Anhydride, and Styrene in October 2025. This pattern establishes a clear policy pivot away from the protectionist framework of the past few years. The government is signaling a decisive return to promoting the "ease of doing business"  and streamlining complex regulations to support India's downstream manufacturing industries.

This is not a temporary loophole; it is the new market reality.

The 14 commodities, and their primary import sources, are detailed below.

Table 1: The 14 Rescinded Commodities & Their Primary Import Corridors

II. The "Dam-Breaking" Moment: Why This Is a Game-Changer for Indian Importers

To grasp the magnitude of the coming import surge, one must first understand what these QCOs truly represented. They were not simple quality checks; they were, in practice, highly effective non-tariff barriers (NTBs).¹⁹

Ostensibly implemented to curb low-quality imports, protect consumer safety, and bolster the 'Make in India' initiative ¹⁹, these QCOs created a formidable wall for foreign manufacturers and a "chokehold" on Indian importers, particularly Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).

The "Pain Point" for Foreign Suppliers

The mechanism for this barrier was the Foreign Manufacturer Certification Scheme (FMCS). To sell their goods in India, foreign suppliers had to navigate a costly and time-consuming compliance process.

• Cost: The FMCS process involved significant financial outlay. This included application fees ²¹, audit charges for factory inspections, and product testing fees.²² Most prohibitive of all was the mandatory USD 10,000 Performance Bank Guarantee required for each license.²² As industry representatives have noted, for a small Asian supplier with 30 different product grades, this translated into an "unaffordable $300,000" in guarantees alone.²³

• Time: The certification process was a logistics marathon, taking approximately 3 to 6 months from application to license grant, assuming no delays.²⁴ This included lengthy factory inspections and sample testing at BIS-approved labs in India.²³

The result was predictable: This system effectively excluded a vast number of smaller, specialized, and highly competitive Asian suppliers from the Indian market, leaving only the largest players who could afford the cost and delay.

The "Chokehold" on Indian MSMEs

While foreign suppliers felt the pain of compliance, Indian MSMEs—the downstream users of these raw materials—suffered the economic consequences.

Industry associations representing the textile and MSME sectors have been vocal, calling the QCOs "disastrous".²⁶ The policy, they argued, led to "market concentration among large companies" ²⁷ and granted "monopolistic privileges to a few upstream producers".²⁶

The impact on importers and manufacturers was immediate and severe:

1. Loss of Global Access: They were cut off from the global market for raw materials, unable to import from their preferred, cost-effective suppliers.²⁸

2. Material Shortages: The policy created acute shortages of specialized materials, such as specific yarn varieties, that were not manufactured domestically in sufficient quantity or quality.²⁸

3. Inflated Costs: Forced to purchase from a small pool of licensed domestic suppliers, MSMEs faced artificially high, non-competitive prices for their primary raw materials.²⁶

4. Lost Competitiveness: This cost inflation, combined with material shortages, made Indian downstream products (from textiles to plastics) uncompetitive in the global export market.²⁶

This context is critical. The removal of the QCOs is not a simple "return to normal." It is the sudden, explosive release of years of pent-up demand. Indian importers are not just resuming old orders; they are actively fleeing the domestic monopolies they were chained to. They will now aggressively and immediately seek to diversify their supply chains, restock depleted inventories, and lock in new contracts with the competitive Asian suppliers they were forbidden from using.

This surge will be faster, larger, and more aggressive than any typical seasonal peak.

III. The New Import Hotspots: A Geo-Specific Analysis of the Coming Surge

This policy change immediately re-draws the map for high-volume trade. The surge in demand will not be evenly distributed; it will be highly concentrated on specific Asia-to-India trade corridors, creating intense bottlenecks at both origin and destination.

1. The Polyester & Textile Value Chain

(PTA, Ethylene Glycol, POY, PSF, IDY, Spun Yarn)

The QCO removal re-opens the entire textile value chain simultaneously.

• The Corridors:

  • Terephthalic Acid (PTA): India's $1.28 billion PTA import market will immediately reactivate, targeting its primary suppliers: China ($548M), Thailand ($267M), Chinese Taipei ($253M), and South Korea ($124M).⁷

  • Polyester Yarns (POY): The market for POY is dominated by China (78% share), Malaysia, and Thailand.⁸ Importers will rush to re-engage these suppliers.

  • Polyester Staple Fibre (PSF): The main export hubs for PSF into India are China, Taiwan, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia.¹⁰

• The Compounded Shock: The simultaneous removal of QCOs on the base chemical (PTA) and the finished fibers (POY, PSF, IDY) will create a compounded demand shock. The chemical importer buying PTA and the textile importer buying POY will be placing orders at the same time, from the same origin port clusters (e.g., Shanghai, Ningbo, Laem Chabang, Busan), for delivery to the same destination ports (Nhava Sheva, Mundra). This will place unprecedented, overlapping demand on these specific trade lanes.

2. Core Polymers (PP, PE, PVC)

This is a market of established, high-volume trade where the QCOs were a recent and highly disruptive barrier.

• The Corridors:

  • PVC: India is the world's number one importer of PVC.¹¹ The QCOs on PVC and PP were only recently imposed in February 2024.¹ Importers will instantly resume high-volume orders from their established partners in China (the dominant supplier), Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.¹¹

  • Polypropylene (PP): Top Asian and Middle Eastern suppliers to India include the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and Thailand.¹³

  • Polyethylene (PE): Similarly, this market is dominated by the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and Qatar.¹³

• The Instantaneous Surge: Because these QCOs were so recent, importers' relationships with their Asian suppliers are still warm. They do not need to find new suppliers; they just need to place new purchase orders. This means the demand surge will be instantaneous, not gradual. The "reaction time" for the logistics market will be near-zero, as thousands of POs are transmitted this week.

3. Engineering Plastics (ABS, Polycarbonate, EVA, Polyurethanes)

These are high-value materials critical for India's automotive, electronics, solar, and footwear industries.

• The Corridors:

  • ABS: The Indian import market is dominated by South Korea ($156M) and Chinese Taipei ($40.4M).¹⁴

  • EVA Copolymers: India is the world's 2nd largest importer of EVA.¹⁷ The market is led by South Korea ($190M), Saudi Arabia ($102M), and Japan ($24.7M).¹⁷

  • Polycarbonate: Imports are concentrated from South Korea, China, Thailand, and Singapore.¹⁵

• The Geographic Bottleneck: The supply chain for all these high-value engineering plastics is geographically concentrated. The ports of Busan (South Korea), Kaohsiung/Keelung (Taiwan), and Laem Chabang (Thailand) will become intense and immediate bottlenecks as Indian importers of ABS, PC, and EVA all compete for the same container slots.

IV. THE LOGISTICS FORECAST: Why a Freight Rate Spike and Capacity Crunch Is Unavoidable

This sudden, concentrated, and overlapping demand shock will have severe, predictable consequences for the container logistics market. A "wait and see" approach is a strategy to fail.

1. The Precedent (Exhibit A): The November 2024 Rate Spike

The market has shown this exact pattern before. During a normal (not policy-driven) import surge in late 2024, spot rates on the Asia-India lanes more than doubled in just one month.²⁹

• Shanghai to Nhava Sheva: Rates for a 20-foot container (TEU) jumped from $800 to $1,600.²⁹

• Singapore to Nhava Sheva: Rates for a TEU jumped from $700 to $1,250.²⁹

That 2024 event was a standard seasonal peak. The current event is a massive, policy-driven demand shock fueled by years of pent-up demand. The impact on rates will be at least as severe, and likely far more so.

2. The Causal Mechanism (The "Bullwhip Effect")

The surge in freight rates and capacity shortages will not be arbitrary. It will be the result of a clear and logical "bullwhip effect" that is already in motion.³⁰

• Step 1: The Demand Shock: Thousands of Indian importers, especially MSMEs, are simultaneously placing new orders with suppliers in the same Asian port clusters (Shanghai, Busan, Laem Chabang, Singapore, Jebel Ali).

• Step 2: The Origin Bottleneck (Equipment Imbalance): This creates an immediate run on container equipment. A sudden, massive demand for 40' High-Cube containers will exhaust the local supply at these origin ports. Carriers will begin reporting "equipment shortages," and cargo will be delayed before it even reaches the terminal.³²

• Step 3: The Capacity Crunch (Space): Carriers, seeing the surge in demand, will manage their networks to maximize profitability. This will manifest as blank sailings to "manage capacity" ³² and will reduce the effective supply of vessel space, even as demand explodes. Space on vessels will become the premium commodity.

• Step 4: The Rate Spike: With thousands of importers bidding for limited equipment and limited vessel space, the spot market will erupt. Rates will rise sharply, mirroring or exceeding the 100%+ increase seen in the 2024 precedent.²⁹

3. The "Calm Before the Storm": A Time-Sensitive Opportunity

This is the most critical and time-sensitive part of the forecast.

As of today, Indian ports are clear. Current port congestion data shows negligible delays:

• Nhava Sheva (JNPT): 1 day average vessel waiting time.³³

• Mundra: 1 day average vessel waiting time.³³

• Chennai: 1 day average vessel waiting time.³³

This is the "calm before the storm." This data reflects the market before the QCO removal. The "bullwhip effect" of the cargo surge, booked this week, is already in the system and will be in transit for the next 2-4 weeks.³⁴

By the time this massive, concentrated wave of cargo arrives in Q1 2026, it will overwhelm Indian terminals. The current clear ports are an illusion of calm. This surge will lead to the vessel bunching, yard congestion, and landside (CY) delays that have choked supply chains in the past.³⁵

The window to get cargo from an Asian factory to an Indian warehouse without crippling congestion delays and before the freight rate explosion is right now—and it is closing fast.

V. Your Strategic Action Plan: How to Secure Capacity Before the Market Turns

Given the forecast, a passive approach is not viable. Importers who wait for the spot market to "cool down" will find themselves paying peak rates for rolled cargo.

1. Do Not Wait for the Spot Market

The spot market will be a "seller's market," defined by extreme volatility, premium surcharges, and a high risk of rolled cargo. The 2024 precedent demonstrates rates can double in 30 days.²⁹

2. Shift to a Proactive Booking Strategy

The importers who win in Q1 2026 will be those who lock in capacity now for their projected volumes. The priority must shift from securing the "lowest rate" to securing guaranteed space. This means engaging in discussions about block-space agreements or named-account contracts for critical, high-volume lanes.

3. Use a Digital Freight Platform to Your Advantage

In a volatile market, speed and transparency are the ultimate advantages.

• A. Get Instant Visibility: The market is changing daily. A digital platform provides instant, transparent quotes for these newly opened trade lanes. This allows importers to compare rates and book in minutes, not days.

• B. Secure Your Capacity: Do not just book a spot; secure a supply chain. Locking in volumes with a digital freight forwarder provides a layer of protection against the coming rate hikes and capacity crunch.

• C. Control the Full Flow: End-to-end visibility, from pre-origin factory readiness in Asia to customs clearance and drayage in India, is non-negotiable. A unified platform eliminates the black holes where delays and costs hide.

Final Call to Action

The import gates are open. The logistics window is closing.

Thousands of your competitors are now competing for the same vessel space and the same containers from the same ports. The market data is clear: freight rates are set to rise sharply, and capacity will evaporate.

Do not leave your Q1 2026 supply chain to chance.

Contact a Cogoport supply chain expert today to build your post-QCO import strategy and lock in your capacity before the market turns.